![]() ![]() ![]() The idea that the rate of oil production would peak and irreversibly decline is an old one. Following a collapse in oil demand at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a number of organizations have put forward predictions of a peak in the next 10 to 15 years. A decade later world oil production rose to hit a new high in 2018, as developments in extraction technology enabled an expansion of U.S. Predictions of future oil production made in 20 stated either that the peak had already occurred, that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur soon. These predictions are dependent on future economic trends, technological developments, and efforts by societies and governments to moderate climate change. Hubbert's original predictions for world peak oil production proved premature and, as of 2021, forecasts of the year of peak oil range from 2019 to 2040. King Hubbert is often credited with introducing the notion in a 1956 paper which presented a formal theory and predicted U.S. Numerous predictions of the timing of peak oil have been made over the past century before being falsified by subsequent growth in the rate of petroleum extraction. A secular decline in oil extraction could be caused both by depletion of accessible reserves and by reductions in demand that reduce the price relative to the cost of extraction, as might be induced to reduce carbon emissions. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price. Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. states production through to 2014 in green Hubbert's upper-bound prediction for US crude oil production (1956) in red, and actual lower 48 U.S. ![]()
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